Covid-19 War: The Coronation of the Girl-Child (A Mother’s Day Tribute)

By Ngozi Asoya
(Larryhappiday)

The Girl-Child has come of age as the top six national leaders in the war against the Covid-19 disease appear to be women.

Corona the crowned virus that broke from China appears to become the diadem on the coronation of women, who are beneficiaries of the Beijing, China Women’s Conference of 1995.

Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila, Namibian Prime Minister leads her country’s war against Covid-19

The Girl-Child has come of age as the top six leaders in the war against the Covid-19 disease are women.

Battles mark out Commanders but wars make the Generals. An unexpected team of Generals are emerging from the Covid-19 battle fields with the war over in a few months time, the ladies are gradually breasting the epaulettes and the world awaits the emergence of war-tested women commanders and Generals as Covid-19 pandemic war heroines.

For most nations, fighting Covid-19 has thrown up an unlikely outcome: the following countries led by women have done exceedingly well in handling the pandemic.  They include:

COUNTRIES GOING TO COVID-19 WAR WITH FEMALE GENERALS
1. Germany
2. Taiwan
3. New Zealand
4. Iceland
5. Finland
6. Norway
7. Denmark
8. Namibia and 9. Ethiopia

FOUNDATION OF WOMEN EMPOWERMENT

The path to emergence of the girl child at the corridors of power began many decades ago but accelerated in the 1980’s. In 1985, there was a conference of women in Nairobi, Kenya. That meeting was like a women’s war council. Their mission was to “establish concrete measures to overcome obstacles to achieving the Decade’s goals.” One of those principal goals was to achieve gender equality at the national levels and for promoting women’s participation in peace and development efforts”.

This culminated in sub conferences and the coup de grace in Beijing in 1995, in which 17,000 people participated with 6,000 people representing governments and 4,000 media and another 4,000 representing NGO’s.
The next decade became the women’s epoch with nearly 18 countries experiencing female heads of governments.
It can be said that they succeeded in their desire to attain the following goals enshrined in the scores of declarations:

“Women’s empowerment and their full participation on the basis of equality
in all spheres of society, including participation in the decision-making
process and access to power, are fundamental for the achievement of
equality, development and peace

and

“Equal rights, opportunities and access to resources, equal sharing of
responsibilities for the family by men and women, and a harmonious
partnership between them are critical to their well-being and that of their
families as well as to the consolidation of democracy”

TALK IS CHEAP?

It may be argued that talk is cheap. Running a government is collective action but in a war situation, commanders are made. Generals win the war and live to tell the story, as Winston Churchill once boasted.

How well have these ladies performed in the Covid-19 war? I submit that this covid-19 is a good situation-room to access how well anyone would do in a shooting war. Or how efficiently, they would spend their nation’s resources in the pursuit of a real shooting under a military condition. The situations may vary but there aren’t many studies simulating female commanders with male commanders in real live warfare. So, we can take their leadership dispositions and extrapolate. Fair enough! Now let’s see how some of the amazons performed when it came to fighting Covid-19 war.

Germany

Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor leads the park of female Commanders fighting the Covid-19 war. Picture: The Local.

This country has been led for about fifteen years by a woman. Under Angela Merkel, the German  economy has weathered many storms. The most remarkable, in my view is the successful emergence of a united Germany as the strongest economy in Europe.

Graphic representation of Germany’s battle with Covid-19 showing steady fall after April 17

Figure 1 Total infection and death in Germany.

Now how well did the country perform under this able General? The figures will speak for themselves. Infections by covid-19 in Germany was less than 172,000 for a population of 83million people, with only 7,500 deaths. Other countries like France and Italy with less population (62m and 62m respectively) had higher casualties in infection and deaths. See figure A which shows figures of infections and deaths. See Figure A for report of infections and deaths. As the time of writing, mortality was 1.1%

New Zealand

This country is led by Jacinda Ardern. She has been in power since 2017 as Prime Minister. She also has a lady as the head of the country’s infectious diseases agency. Collectively, they have wrestled the disease and appear to have won the war, if there’s no second wave of infections. So far, the results are heartening and New Zealanders would be appreciative of the victories their country recorded in the covid-19 war. Here are the facts:
Figure B

Fig. B Steady decline of infections in New Zealand beginning from mid April

Figure 2: total infection in New Zealand compared with the top covid infection and death

From the above, it is clear that New Zealand had 1,144 only with twenty (21) only deaths (mainly the old and aged). The country’s population is 4.8million representing 0.3%.

Denmark

Since April 7, the figures have been sliding in Denmark. That was when they had their highest daily infection of about 400. Led by Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen since June 2019, she has led a one-party government consisting of the Social Democrats with parliamentary support from other parties and has done resoundingly well against covid-19 disease. Total infection as the time writing was about 10,000 cases with only about 500 deaths. Denmark has a population of 5.8m. Figure C is a graphic portrayal of the country’s continuous victory over the disease since April

Fig C Denmark‘s remarkable decline in the Covid-19 figures since early April

Figure 3: Danish Infections and Death compared with the worst hit countries

Namibia

Namibia is one of the two countries in Africa, currently having a female in the top echelon of decision making. The Prime Minister is Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila. She is effectively the leader of her country’s government. Her performance in the area of covid-19 has astounded many. Namibia has had only sixteen (16) infections with eleven (11) recoveries. No deaths yet. The country’s population is 2.7million. Figure D shows Namibia’s surprise Covid-19 report since April.

Fig. D Namibia on the Covid-19 radar

Norway

This country of 5.3m is led by Erna Solberg, who was born in Bergen Norway in February 1961. She has been serving as Norwegian Prime Minister since 2013 and Leader of the Conservative Party since May 2004. Solberg was first elected to be a member of the Storting in 1989 and served as Minister of Local Government and Regional Development in Bondevik’s Second Cabinet from 2001 to 2005. Now she leads the greatest battle of her premiership fighting Covid-19. How has she fared? The graphic below shows a steady decline for an extended length of time giving hope that she may be counted amongst Churchillian generals that will live to write the history of the war. Figure E is Norwegian graph showing how the infection rate declined steadily over one month.

Figure E is Norwegian graph showing steady decline in the figures since early April.

Conclusion

If things continue the way they’re, the girls will win a resounding victory for political and leadership equality based on their masterful handling of the Covid-19 pandemic in their different jurisdictions.
Other countries with females in charge include Taiwan (Republic of China), Ethiopia where the ceremonial president is a woman and Iceland. All those countries show remarkable decline in infections and deaths leading analysts to ask: is Corona, the crowned virus that broke out from China here to coronate the products of the Beijing Women’s Conference? What a coincide!

UPDATE: New Zealand becomes the first country to be free of Covid-19?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52961539

As projected in our conclusion above, countries led by a ladies are likely to be the winners in the confrontation with Covid-19. New Zealand has just attained the Level One vigilance stage which is almost a complete stage of restriction. Let’s watch how the other five return in the race. Congratulations to Jacinda Ardern, Prime Minister and her team.

---

Covid-19 May Cause Dangote Refinery Into A Force Majeure

The economic devastation occasioned by Covid-19 may cause Dangote Refinery into issuing a force majeure. This was revealed by Mr. Ngozi Asoya a lead analyst at Certified Estates and a knowledge coach after a meeting of his team of real estate business experts and lawyers.

In a report gleaned by reporters, the refinery is expected to be involved in local and international supply of refined and crude petroleum products export.

ALIKO DANGOTE, President Dangote Group

These businesses are guided by contractual obligations which are strictly implemented on contractual terms and there are penalties for failure to deliver. Any eventualities such as accidents and unexpected circumstances may result in failure to deliver at the date expected. That kind of situation is what activates issue of a force majeure in international business.

Asoya says, Dangote Refinery is expected to issue that to indemnify it from contractual obligations. The result of this force majeure extends to real estate companies and businesses in the Ibeju Lekki area that have been using the refinery as a marketing bait.

Long Wintry Night for Dangote Refinery

According to the Certified Estates experts, they are producing a report for their clients warning that the uncertainties in the fortune of Dangote Refinery may affect their business.

The $8billion refinery was expected to start off with the fertilizer plant rolling next month and the other petrochemical products subsequently. However, the covid-19 pandemic has forced oil prices down to $11 below $22 production prices per barrel.

In Mr. Asoya’s view, that oil prices have been collosal means that a new producer like Dangote Refinery would have no profitable market beyond the local market. This, he opined is because, the international waters are saturated with tankers that can not find buyers. The glut will make it not feasible for new entrants he said.

In that circumstances, a force majeure will be a natural safety net for a company especially one in the oil industry where long term delivery contracts are taken seriously.

He forsees a postponement of the date for the take off the project to the last quarter of 2020.

Unviable Sales Appeal

A selling point for real estate in Ibeju Lekki axis was to market it as being close to the refinery. The use of the refinery as a business bait is a faded tactic after the covid -19 pandemic. Responding to questions, he said: “Customers are likely to be asking questions concerning the viability of the brand after the pandemic.” According to him, buyers of land solely on the refinery may have worries but there are still other viable and attenuating business propositions that make the area a good prospect.

He advised buyers to be verify their reasons with honest realtors, noting: “it’s an unviable proposition at the moment to market properties with that project because there’s a long wintry night ahead.”

Why It’s Difficult for Dangote

The refinery is coming at a time considered the tail of the fossil fuel era. Millions of vehicles are already on the streets that use alternative energy resources. There are estimates the fossil fuel will cease to be the energy resource of the 2040’s. It was estimated that given the diversification of energy sources for heating, transportation and light energy uses, investing in refining was not a very smart option.

Some analysts had also argued that the refinery was a mistake given increasing green energy research successes. Asoya disagreed. He is of the view that twenty years was a long time to recoup this investment. According to him, given the projection of the time of commencement, it was not unlikely that the project was viable. However, he said it’s a different ball game with the collapse of the world economy as it is known.

He cited the $11 per barrel of crude as a very difficult position to be for a new entrant. Apart from not being profitable, there are no takers due to a lockdown in most parts of the world. “Buyers themselves, if Dangote has got many, may even be the ones to declare a force majeure as they are also unable to meet their contractual obligations.”

It is a situation of double jeopardy, he said but insisted that the African market alone post covid-19 would require a lot of stimulus boosting. He said manufacturing would be revved up and transportation would most likely roar instantly to live. The African market will be an attractive proposition for the refinery post-covid19, he said, adding, “what should concern everyone for now is how long the cold wintry night ahead would last.”

Effect of Covid-19 on Oil Business

1. The Covid-19 pandemic has shattered oil demand and there’s an oversupply of the product in the market due to the lack of manufacturing and transportation occasioned by covid-19 induced lockdowns all over the world. This double whammy according to a PriceWaterCooper (PWC) source “Refining has often offset oil price declines in the crude markets, with margins and volumes typically growing as crude prices have fallen. But this time is different,” he said. According to him, “Today, while crude oil prices are falling due to oversupply, there is also a rapid decline in demand — both domestically and internationally”

2. It has sunk prices. Between January and April 2020, prices moved from a peak $64.58 on 5 January to a low $11 as at 22 April. This aggressive fall was accentuated by the bickering between Saudi Arabia and Russia over oil supply to the market. Now there’s a glut and prices have collapsed. How soon the excess crude on the high sea will be taken remains to be seen. Despite appeals from the oil cartel, OPEC, the feuding went on for too long.

3. It is posing a major risk for those involved in oil extraction and processing. Being a high professional economic venture, oil business attracts international expertise. For countries that had high incidents of the Covid19 disease, it will be hard to get needed staffing with the requisite experience to return immediately to work. There’s also the fear of another wave of infections.

4. It is hampering new investments in this sector. Already there are estimates that up to $30billion cuts in investment may be activated by the collapse of the world oil industry.

5. Chinese economic recovery will affect global price restoration. Latest studies on oil volatility shows that China has been responsible for over 70% of international oil purchased in 2018-19. Thus it is crucial that Chinese economy should recover speedily for there to be price restoration. Unfortunately, even China makes a quick recovery from Covid19 pandemic, there are still concerns ability the global consumer confidence, and purchasing power.

Whereas internally it might be a tactical action to print currency to bout the economy, it might be a different ball game internationally. So the scenario is a bit unclear, analysts spoken fear.

In February this year before the all out war against Covid19, global oil demand contracted by over 450,000 barrels per day according to International Energy Agency (IEA). By March it had worsened to 1.1m per day contraction.

6. Unemployment crises may settle in if the economic tension continues. Fresh oil prospecting may be hampered as companies may be constrained to reduce their exposure to further uncertainty. A speedy rally of prices may help but there are not enough industry history to make extrapolation on.

Listen to the Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber and Petroleum industry lobbyist, N.J Ayuk said: “Thousands of Africans and expats are going to be laid off in oil-producing countries as companies shut down their drilling rigs and planned projects.”

7. African Energy Chamber in their own analysis said Nigeria is bound to suffer revenue losses as a result of Covid19. It opined that since most African oil producers had a budget estimate of $50, there will be “immediate pressure on state budgets and macro-economic stability. Apart from South Africa, the continent’s biggest economies rely heavily on oil revenue to fuel state budget and public spending and ensure macro-economic stability.” According to the industry watchers, of covid-19 as it’s economy is over 75% reliant on oil. They say that COVID-19 would cause the country to suffer the biggest loss of $15.4bn in the continent which represents a 4% shrinking of the country’s GDP.

Before the Pandemic, Nigeria was already in the borrower’s market shopping for funds to fund its budgeted deficit. Unless there is massive re-engineering, the budget is dead on arrival.

Other African oil producers that may be affected include Congo-Brazzaville which experience losses of up to 34% of its GPD because her debt-to-GDP ratio is already already very high at 90%; Angola, may have a revenue loss of about $13bn, representing 13% of GDP; while Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Chad could see losses of almost 10% of GDP due to the ongoing pandemic.

Options to Market Real Estate in Ibeju Lekki

Property sellers will have to look beyond Dangote for validation. There’s uncertainty about whether the refinery is a good idea right now. The options open to marketers will include the prospect of a new Dubai city, new airport and the deep sea port which all combined still hold a lot of hope for increased economic activity in the region.

The acceleration of work on the fourth mainland bridge also means that the political will to transform Ibeju Lekki into an economic hub is still alive. That should fire enough